Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the GrainCorp Limited Half Year 2024 Results Briefing. [Operator Instructions]
I'd now like to hand the conference over to Robert Spurway, Managing Director and CEO. Please go ahead.
Thank you, and good morning, everyone. This morning, I'll present an update on GrainCorp's first half '24 and then hand across to Ian Morrison, our Chief Financial Officer.
As we start, I would like to acknowledge the traditional owners of the land on which we meet. For those of us presenting from Sydney, that's the Gadigal people of the Eora Nation. I pay our respects to leaders past and present.
I will prompt the pages that we're talking to for those of you following online, starting with our executive summary on Page 4. I want to start on the right-hand side of the page. We are doing what we said we would, delivering on our commitment to provide capital returns whilst investing for growth. Our balance sheet remains exceptionally strong with $495 million in core cash that's allowed the Board to -- on top of the ordinary dividend of $0.14 per share, to clear a $0.10 special dividend and those dividends are on top of the previously announced share buyback of $50 million, which we expect to commence shortly.
Today, I'll provide an update on our strategy execution and the progress we're making. In particular, we're confirming our commitment to our through-the-cycle earnings and lifting it by $10 million to $320 million, reflecting the acquisition of XF Australia. We're making good progress on our crush capacity expansion, and we'll talk about that in terms of the value chain for biofuels as part of the strategy update. And we continue to broaden our portfolio across Agtech and sustainability.
We did provide a market update last week, and we're confirming the headline results in that underlying first-half earnings of $164 million. Ian Morrison will talk to some of the drivers behind that and the segment results, including some records in the areas and operational metrics that are within our control.
If we move across to Page 5, the top line of that is numbers that we've largely talked about already, the $57 million net profit, underlying net profit after tax, $164 million in EBITDA for the half, and the 7.4% return on invested capital. We've certainly seen the impact of drier conditions last year in Northern New South Wales and Queensland. And whilst the crop volume overall was average, it was certainly a story of 2 halves geographically, and that impacted the total tonnes handled and the relatively difficult trading conditions that we're seeing as part of the update in our earnings guidance for this year.
Really importantly, though, we're calling out those metrics in the business that we can control. We're proud of the record 282,000 oilseed crush volumes driving value across our business and an exceptionally strong balance sheet with core cash of $495 million. Ian will expand on the numbers and the drivers behind that.
If I turn now to Page 6 and Health & Safety. We continue to strive for zero harm every day across GrainCorp. That's particularly important as an operational business. We're pleased to see the progress we're making as reflected in the charts at the bottom of the page, particularly on recordable injury frequency rate. Our focus every day is around the basic things, hazard inspections and identification and reducing the risk of injuries in our working environment. More broadly on the page, we cover the whole aspect of safety for our people and the contractors that we work with.
If we look at sustainability on Page 7, we're pleased with the clarity and the commitments we've made in our annual sustainability report. And this half-year juncture gives us an opportunity to provide an update on our progress in key areas. Starting on the right-hand side of the page. Earlier in the year, Reconciliation Action Australian endorsed our RAP or reconciliation action plan at Innovate level. As I understand, we're the only agribusiness with that level of endorsement.
We were very pleased to see a workplace gender equality agency reporting earlier this year that GrainCorp has the lowest gender pay gap among any ASX 200 business at 0.3%. We are making continued and good progress on our science-based target initiative road map, and we're on track to submit targets by the end of this year. As I said, we report annually on ESG, and we look forward to providing a full update in our November reporting period across ESG and the good progress that we're making.
If we move now across to Page 9. Many of you will be familiar with this slide. It's our strategy that underpins our focus on both strengthening the core and targeted growth opportunities, both of which lift return on invested capital over time. Rather than spending any time on this slide, I'm going to use the next few slides to highlight progress that we're making.
On Page 10, we provide a summary of progress across both strengthening the core and in targeted growth opportunities. In the core, I've already called out the record oil crush seed volume at 282,000 tonnes in the half. In that part of our business and more broadly across the business, we are starting to see the real benefits of our investments in advanced analytics and large data initiatives. It's providing improvements in planning and delivering results, both in terms of volumes and cost control and management in the business more broadly.
We're also continuing to diversify our bulk materials handling to ensure we maximize the utilization of our ports. We have seen increased contribution margin through the half from new customers, and that's been a key focus over at least the last couple of years. Some of those margins have been offset in the half by some declining volumes. But overall, we're pleased with the progress we're making, and we're continuing to assess new opportunities for growth and volumes. So having the combination of growing volumes over time and strong margins certainly helps the utilization and the income associated with those very valuable infrastructure assets.
Agri-energy growth is continuing to perform strongly in our business. Sales volumes were up 15% versus first half '23. And specifically, we've got some new customers in the North American market. One of the things that we see, again, is the integrated nature of that business and our ability to deliver both fresh oil and collect used cooking oil places us in a great position with many of our customers here in Australia. Rather than talk about the targeted growth opportunities on this slide, the next 3 slides cover that in a bit more detail.
On Page 11. Firstly, as part of an update on the feasibility for our new crush plant capacity and opportunity, I want to acknowledge the support announced by the government on Tuesday night in the budget. It was great to see some specific measures there associated with the biofuels and low-carbon fuels opportunity in Australia. Areas like the study on mandates and demand-side measures, that will be important as we develop our opportunity in the feedstock end of that value chain. We think the commitment to $18.5 million for a study on certification scheme for low-carbon fuels will also provide certainty over time for the sector on top of the well-talked about Made in Australia commitments. All of these areas are areas that we think will accelerate the opportunity for GrainCorp by growing out the full value chain and providing the opportunity that we're looking for in the demand side as we supply fuel feedstocks into that sector.
More specifically on the left-hand side of the page, I've spoken previously about the attractive fundamentals, the 19% compound annual growth we see across the APAC region, the opportunity for onshoring of that into Australia and the significant feedstock demand that we expect to come from that and thus the opportunity for GrainCorp. We are well-positioned as a leading Australian supplier of renewable fuel feedstocks, the areas like used cooking oil, tallow and vegetable oil, and that's why we're continuing to explore the opportunity for expanded crush capacity.
We are looking at opportunities on both the West Coast and East Coast of Australia. The factors that are important in this sort of study are the proximity to oilseed supply, the fuel refining capacity as we partner with the likely off-takers in this value chain who will refine the feedstocks into these renewable fuels. Our customer demand and export access are all considerations as part of our study. We are announcing today the scale of the sort of opportunity we see of crush capacity in the order of 750,000 to 1 million tonnes could be a CapEx in the order of $500 million. We think it's important to highlight the scale of the opportunity and the opportunities for earnings that that will bring over time as this value chain is built out.
We are continuing to make good progress in the partnerships that we're forming and the opportunity and demand partners as we look at the supply opportunities. We've also had good engagement, very positive engagement with government to date, and we look forward to the next stage of consultation on the budget measures announced by the government on Tuesday night.
If we move now to Page 12 and just highlight the acquisition of the Performance Feeds and Nutrition Services Australia business. That's a business that prior to our acquisition and completion on the 2nd of April achieved EBITDA of $9.5 million. And the chart on the right-hand side shows the environment that that business and our broader animal nutrition business is working in. We're seeing growth opportunities and strong growth in the business that we've acquired. We're making good progress on integrating that business into GrainCorp, and we look forward to the opportunities and growth opportunities that those businesses and our existing businesses combined can achieve. This acquisition was good for our customers and good for GrainCorp shareholders.
Look, finally, before I hand it across to Ian to talk through some of the details on our segment reporting, I want to, on Page 13, just highlight the work we're doing in GrainCorp Ventures.
The very strong overlap here with our sustainability commitments to the sector. We're investing in opportunities that provide technology and capability in terms of sustainability and productivity of the Ag sector. That, of course, is ultimately good for GrainCorp on top of the specific investments that we're making. The most recent minority stake that we've taken is in a Singapore-based business that's developing peptides as a replacement for antibiotics. So we're excited about the sort of opportunities and the value that that brings to our customers directly, to GrainCorp directly and to the sector over time.
Ian, I'm going to hand across to you now just for an update on the financial performance, including the segment reporting. Thank you.
Thanks, Robert, and good morning all. I'll now move on to Slide 15, just to summarize the financial performance for half year '24. So this slide just shows the segment breakdown of the half-year results, and I'll cover more of the detail across the various segments on the slides coming up. Firstly, though, I just wanted to start by noting the change in segments in FY '24 with our previous processing segment renamed Nutrition and Energy. This now includes what we had previously referred to as Feeds, Fats & Oils. In the appendix to the presentation, we've included more details on the restatement of segments.
Just touching on this slide as well. For the corporate segment, we've broken out the gain following the completion of the liquidation of UMG. And we've also separated out business transformation costs, which I'll touch on further later. I'll now move on to Slide 16 and the Agribusiness segment. Starting off with our East Coast Australia business.
Overall, we saw reduced production and grain-handled volumes coming off the record crops of recent years across the East Coast. A key feature of this year's crop was the north-south split with below-average conditions across Queensland and Northern New South Wales, offset by favorable growing conditions in Southern New South Wales and Victoria. This north-south split of the crop as well as the reduced production overall has impacted on margins relative to the prior year. Beyond the local dynamics of the crop, global factors have also played a role in the softening of margins. We've seen flat prices reduce globally, impacting grower selling pace and also improved global production conditions have seen customer end demand soften with less concern from customers in relation to supply, and that's impacted some of their purchasing behavior.
Despite those reduced volumes we've seen across our network this year, we continue to focus on customer experience. And it's pleasing to see a 2 percentage point increase in site satisfaction scores compared to the prior year harvest. Also just to note that the Agribusiness result does include the impact of the Crop Production Contract with a $58.4 million estimated payment from the FY '24 crop. This estimated payment would bring net cumulative payments over the life of the Crop Production Contract to $210 million. And just as a reminder, that would be against a cumulative cap of $270 million.
And just lastly, on East Coast Australia, as Robert touched on earlier, we continue to focus on utilization of our ports through bulk material handling. Whilst volumes are down in the half, our strategy in that area is delivering improved margins and returns across the portfolio. Wood chip volumes, in particular, are lower year-on-year, but we've got a strong pipeline of opportunities to continue to grow that part of our business.
Now turning to Slide 17 and our International business. Similar to East Coast Australia, we saw lower volumes and margins with the Western Australian crop well below average in FY '24. Improved production in the key international growing regions also had an impact on margin similar to the conditions I referenced earlier. And just touching on Canada, we have seen some improvement in earnings from our GrainsConnect joint venture, and it continues to perform well operationally. However, volumes and margins continue to be impacted by the lower exportable surplus in that region as the area recovers from a period of lower production. Overall, though, we're very happy with the quality of that asset base and it's well positioned once conditions improve.
Now just turning to Slide 18 and our Nutrition and Energy segment. As you can see in the graph on the right-hand side of this slide, we've continued the trend of increased crush volumes with the ongoing focus on delivering operational efficiency and maximizing the utilization of our assets. This has seen the business deliver a record half-year crush volume of 282,000 tonnes. As expected and aligned with global conditions, we have seen crush margins moderate from recent highs. The lower supply of canola seed in the East Coast of Australia as well as lower vegetable oil values driven by the improved global supply conditions I touched on before have been the key drivers behind that moderation in margins.
In our Human Nutrition business, we have seen some reduced sales volumes, mainly in lower bulk edible oil sales, but we've continued to see strong demand in higher-value product lines. We noted at our November year-end results that we had commenced a strategic review of our East Tamaki site in New Zealand, and that has completed with an employee consultation process now underway.
Now moving on to Slide 19 and our Animal Nutrition and Agri-energy segments. Animal Nutrition sales volumes have increased year-on-year, and that's largely off the back of strong demand for supplementary feeds in Australia. As Robert noted before, it's also pleasing that we completed the acquisition of Performance Feeds and Nutrition Services Australia just after the end of the half and earnings contribution from that business will commence in the second half of the fiscal year '24.
And just touching briefly on Agri-energy business. Sales volumes were up 15% in the half, driven by a combination of good demand out of North America and strong tallow volumes in Australia.
Now moving on to Slide 20 and Corporate. Underlying corporate costs are flat year-on-year, both on an underlying basis and also across growth projects. The growth projects noted on this slide mainly relate to the acquisition of XF Australia and ongoing work into the crush feasibility study. Also during the half, we have progressed the design phase of our planned business and systems transformation. This program is focused on rationalizing and replacing a suite of systems, including our current instance of SAP. The aim of this is to increase efficiency and reduce costs and support our platform for growth. We plan to commence the phased implementation of this program in the second half of '24 following the completion of the design phase business case and associated benefits, and we'll bring further updates back at the end of the year. Now moving on to the balance sheet on Slide 22.
We've continued to generate positive cash flows in the business and combined with the benefit of proceeds from the sale of United Malt Group stake in the half, we finished the half year in a very strong position with a core cash balance of $495 million. Also just to note, we've seen net debt reduce relative to the prior half year with a closing net debt of $765 million. And that reduction is off the back of those reduced commodity inventory as well as values. Also just to note, during the half, we've extended our term debt of $150 million out to March 2027, with the principal of $150 million remaining unchanged. Overall, our balance sheet is in a very strong position.
Now moving on to capital expenditure on Slide 23. Following a period of higher investment in CapEx to capitalize on large harvest, we've seen a moderation in capital spend in this half. For the full year, we still expect sustaining CapEx to be in line with our targeted range of $40 million to $50 million with some catch-up capital from the first half. Note that the recent acquisition of XF Australia for $35 million was completed just after the balance date. So that will be included in the second half results. On the right-hand side of this slide in relation to D&A, we'd expect to see full year D&A at similar levels to FY '23 before continuing to reduce over time. And that's particularly after the increased investment in recent years to capitalize a large harvest in short-life assets that will depreciate more quickly. Now just turning to Slide 24 on shareholder returns.
The strength of our balance sheet and confidence into the future enable the Board today to declare an interim dividend of $0.24 per share, fully franked, and that was made up of a $0.14 per share ordinary dividend and a $0.10 per share special dividend. The dividends declared today are in addition to the planned $50 million on-market buyback that we announced in November 2023 and that we expect to commence shortly. Capital management will continue to be assessed against growth opportunities in line with our capital management framework.
On that note, I'll now hand back to Robert.
Thanks, Ian. I just want to before making some conclusion remarks comment on the outlook, the environment we're seeing for financial year '24, and indeed, the crop that's going in the ground at the moment that impacts '24-'25. You'll all be aware that we provided a guidance update on the 6th of May, so early last week with underlying EBITDA of between $250 million and $280 million and underlying net profit of $60 million to $80 million. What we're seeing is that growers are being hesitant to sell. And while there's demand for grain, margins are tight, while global markets assess the conditions and the supply into next year. That's for the crop that's in the ground in the northern hemisphere and the crop that's going in the ground in the Southern Hemisphere. As a result, we expect grain and oilseed margin environment to remain challenging for the remainder of financial year '24.
We are seeing dry conditions in Western Australia, and that will impact likely exportable volumes and margins in that market. Crush volumes are expected to remain strong. So again, we are operating in a resilient way and controlling what we can control. If I look at the '24-'25 winter plant, the soil moisture profile across the East Coast of Australia is very full, and that provides the potential for a full planted area and the opportunity for well-above-average crops. We are seeing an expectation, therefore, that the East Coast crop in Northern regions will rebound from the drought conditions we saw in '23-'24.
Of course, the rainfall over the growing season is important, where we wish and grow as well for that period of time, but good to see such a strong start. We'll be looking to the June ABS update where they'll provide some of the statistics and details around the planted area and still a very early view on the outlook for the crop ahead of us.
If we move now to Page 27 and some conclusion comments. We do have confidence in our through-the-cycle earnings despite the cyclical headwinds we've touched on for this year. Today's announcement demonstrates our strong operational execution despite some of those normalizing conditions.
We've increased our through-the-cycle average EBITDA to $320 million. We've continued to assess a new crush plant capacity in our oilseeds business, supporting the biofuels value chain. We have a very strong balance sheet with significant flexibility, and we are delivering on our track record of strong returns to shareholders whilst maintaining that flexible balance sheet and the opportunity for investment and growth.
At this point, I'm going to hand back to the moderator, and we look forward to the opportunity for any questions.
[Operator Instructions] The first question today comes from Apoorv Sehgal from UBS.
Rob and Ian, I guess, my one question then. Just on the WA canola crushing opportunity. With the recent press coverage around CBH and Cargill potentially entering the fray in WA, what implications does that have, if any, on your assessment of that opportunity?
Yes. Thanks, Apoorv, for the question. Look, if anything, I think it highlights the opportunity and the scale of the opportunity we see in the market for Australia. It's not at all surprising to see that others are interested in that space, and we expect that there's plenty of capacity. So we remain focused on our study, as I said, developing out the opportunity, the CapEx and the right location, including the overlap with our existing footprint, both in East Coast and West Coast Australia, and then also identifying where the best demand opportunities are going to be.
I do want to reiterate that our focus here is on the feedstock supply of what we expect will be a very significant value chain and, therefore, taking our time to assess that, make sure that there's support not just from the government, but from the whole of the fuel sector, including the demand signal is really important given the scale of the investment that we want to make, the long-term nature of these sorts of assets and the returns we expect that can deliver over time.
Just as a really quick follow-up to that. The comment on the East Coast being an option, is that new information? Or is that something you've mentioned in the past -- is that East Coast option as well?
Look, I think it's broadening out the specifics of our study. We have talked about the partnership that we formed with IFM, and that was specifically looking at the East Coast option. So in that respect, it's not new. I think we're being more specific that given the scale of the opportunity and discussion with potential partners, we see that there could be potential for crush capacity on both East Coast and West Coast of Australia. I wouldn't describe it as new information. I think it's just more detailed information on the extent of the study we're doing and the opportunity that we see ahead, if that makes sense, Apoorv.
The next question comes from Richard Barwick from CLSA.
Just want to talk about the oilseed crush volume. So obviously a great outcome there and another record. Can you just talk us through or update us where you are for that number in terms of capacity? I mean, another record, I believe you're probably beyond what is the nameplate capacity. So love to hear your comments there and further scope to actually increase those volumes.
Look, it's a great question, Richard. I think the first thing I would say about nameplate capacities when it comes to complex and large assets like our crush facilities is it's much more about the planning and the optimization of each of the unit processes within those facilities. I alluded to the way we've achieved some of the more recent gains around use of advanced analytics, the data capability that we're building within the business and within partners to really look at how we debottleneck parts of that process, how we improve our planning. I think we've got very good capability on the inbound supply of seed. So we're using those analytics more broadly across the business and making sure the seeds are in the right place at the right time.
But more importantly, it's around the operational performance of the plant, making sure that we're minimizing and avoiding any unplanned downtime and all the things that strong and good operational businesses do. In terms of the key question, how much further can this go, we'd like to think there's still incremental opportunity. But I think we've been flagging over the last 2 reporting periods over about the last 12 months. There will be a limit to how far we can go on this, and I think we're getting pretty close to the sort of optimum levels.
So you'll see them go up and down a little bit. We hope there's an incremental opportunity. But to a large extent, the reason that we're talking about a scale crush plant expansion is we see the likely demand is going to justify that investment. And as you'd appreciate, there are diminishing returns and investments in existing assets. You get to the point where you need to look at a step change and the demand profile we see developing the broad opportunity for biofuels and therefore, the feedstock supply gives us that opportunity to explore a crush plant, we think we're ideally placed to be a really important part of connecting agriculture into that exciting future for Australia and a right to win. So ideally placed and importantly, with the balance sheet to deliver on that opportunity as well.
The next question comes from James Ferrier from Wilsons Advisory.
I wanted to ask you about contracted grain sales. So in that first half period, volumes were down a bit. Margins obviously down. And then linking that into your full-year guidance as it stands at the moment, I'm just wondering where you see return on capital here and how it compares to your target in the context that you've got sort of circa $1 billion of commodity inventory position there. And just whether you view it as sort of fully normalized? Are you achieving sort of below-average returns currently and you'd expect improvement from here? Just some color around that would be great.
Yes. Sure. Thanks, James. We might both comment on that. I'll make some broad comments reiterating what I've already said that margins are tight. And one of the factors that we called out in our earnings guidance is the conditions that developed through the remainder of the year and in particular, in the final quarter. What we would expect to see is accelerating forward sales as confidence builds around next year's crop. Now that's always the case. It happens every year no matter how big the crop is and the extent of those forward sales really inform the margin and the opportunity for sales this year, and that depends on the conditions and the confidence around the size of the crop.
Where that translates back to working capital and inventory, Ian can maybe comment. But yes, we would expect -- I think we've called out in the pack later in the appendices, we'd expect carryout to be in the order of 3 million to 4 million tonnes. So we've still got a reasonable opportunity for exports early in the year. But Ian, you might like to comment on how you see that developing.
Yes. So just firstly, James, to talk on the contracted grain sales. So still relatively strong compared to the prior half year, but the mix would be a bit different with an increased element into the domestic markets. There would be a bit of that balance. And then in terms of your question around the broader invested capital base, there is a chart in the appendix that talks about working capital and the shifts in that. So we have seen that continue to normalize from the above-average levels in recent years. We'd probably say it's approaching more typical levels now with the commodity prices having come off the highs we saw in recent years as well as those volumes.
In terms of returns more generally, you're very familiar with the way we think about that being on a through-the-cycle basis rather than in a given year. And so looking at it from a through-the-cycle basis, our ability to really leverage the assets in those higher production years is definitely part of delivering that strong return over time.
The next question comes from Ben Wedd from Macquarie.
Just maybe a question around sort of what you're seeing with this current winter plant. I think some of the signals are that Victoria and South Australia have seen some pretty dry conditions as well. To what extent does that sort of threaten, I guess, the outlook for '25? And should we see a sort of reversal of that north-south split? Any comments around how the margin peaks might evolve next year as well?
Look, probably the best way to comment on that, to answer that question is to look at objective data historically. Victoria, in particular, in Southern New South Wales historically has a much more stable crop. Yes, it can be influenced by drought. And yes, you do get well-above-average or bumper conditions when you get the right weather patterns.
But generally, it is far more stable. What we're seeing this year is -- and I think this goes to the risk of looking at any point in time, on any given day, a farmer is probably looking at the window and either wanting the sun to shine or the rain to fall. But actually, it's really important how the weather develops over the next 4 to 5 months, a little bit dry at the moment in those regions, but that is offset by very strong subsoil moisture profile. So what I'm hearing from growers is that they're planting. The area of planting will be good. It's likely that in most areas, there will be a good crop developed and the weather in the months ahead will determine the final yield of that.
Now of course, as always, one of the unknowns is how that weather develops. And if we see deep drought develop, that can diminish the crop. But as we would expect in Victoria, it rains fairly reliably and fairly regularly at some point in the next number of months, that will support that crop that's in the ground and the moisture that's available in the subsoil. You probably want a more specific answer, Ben. But as we've always said, we're not going to get into forecasting the weather, what we look is at the major drivers, and then we focus on the objective data.
I think the key sort of things that you should look to in the June ABS update is the planted area. And then, of course, the yield story develops over time. And even ABS acknowledged that they look to the future to build confidence around the sorts of numbers that are there. And then we plan and respond accordingly to those sorts of themes. I recall seeing an article earlier this week, it's been a very busy week as you might imagine, that the Bureau of Meteorology has put Australia on a La Niña watch. So again, the sort of overall climatic driver is one that favors grain production rather than drought which we're encouraged by.
And Ben, maybe if I could just add as well. In terms of north-south versus south-north split, you're probably familiar that GrainCorp does have a stronger position more generally in the north. So certainly, that type of SKU is more favorable for us. Some of the factors around that is there is an increased domestic [ draw ] in the north. So when you see below-average conditions like we saw this year, it does quickly see domestic prices really look to slow down or turn off exports and crimp the margins more quickly than what you might see in the southern region. So that SKU does have an impact. And it's why you've probably heard me say before, there is no such thing as an average year. Even when you might see on the face of it, an average headline production, every single crop year has its own set of unique conditions, whether they're globally or locally, our aim is to generate the best outcome possible with the given conditions to deliver on a through-the-cycle basis.
The next question comes from Noria Akbari from RBC.
I just had a quick question. Looking at the Performance Feeds and Nutrition's contributions for the second half, what are the expectations? I did see the $9.5 million in the 12 months to 31st of March 2024. Is there a growth number or a post-integration number that could possibly be, I guess, pointed towards?
Thanks, Noria, for your interest in that area. We don't disclose at that level of detail the likely performance of that business. We are calling out though that the earnings in the 12 months prior were $9.5 million. That excludes any integration benefits, again, which we're not disclosing, but we will share that we do expect to see some integration benefits.
I think if you look to last year's forecast, so the results we announced in November, we shared the 12 months rolling year-to-date performance of that business at about $7.6 million in EBITDA. So you're seeing good growth trajectory over the last 18 to 24 months in that business. And then the broader environmental or context comments I'd make is the opportunity with growing demand from feedlots in Australia, the areas of the market that that business is exposed to are those feedlot areas. So we think the environment is there for growth.
As I said, we won't be getting into disclosing the individual performance metrics of that business, but we're very confident in the forward outlook for that part of our business, and that's supported by the $10 million lift and through-the-cycle earnings from $310 million to $320 million. So I think that should give you the transparency and clarity that you need to understand the ambition and the reason why we focus on that as part of our strategic growth platform.
The next question comes from Jonathan Snape from Bell Potter.
Maybe to start, I can already, I think, here, Ian getting ready to say every season is different. But look, if I looked at the last 25 years, average receivables are just over 10 million tonnes, average exports are just over 5 million tonnes. You split the difference in your guidance, you kind of thereabouts that 25-year average. I know you've come out and said you're still confident about this $310 million lifting it to $320 million number, but your guidance is $250 million to $280 million this year. So is there any way you could, I guess, touch on where the deviations are from that $320 million type number, which you're talking about compared to the guidance given generally, it would kind of look like an average season?
Yes. Very happy to talk to that, Jon. So a few factors, which we've touched on already to some extent during the call this morning. One of them is the drag on earnings from our GrainsConnect joint venture still not at the level we'd expect it. So that's one aspect in our business.
That's a Canadian business. Just a clarification.
Yes, in Canada. And we spoke at the AGM time when we put out our guidance for the year that we were still anticipating challenging conditions off the back of recent production in that region. And I think the other aspects are more the dynamics that you're seeing both globally and locally. I understand what you're saying on the volumes, but margins are the elements that we're seeing those impact -- have a greater impact on.
And the other point I'd make as well as the backward look is one way to think about it. But remember, in terms of a forward view, we have been seeing pretty strong growth in production over time across the East Coast of Australia, and there's a chart in one of the slides in the appendix that shows the long-term growth in East Coast winter grain production. I think it's a CAGR of 2.3%. So yes, looking back gives a view, but also we do expect to see that continued trend of more productive set of conditions across the East Coast of Australia. And so that's a factor as well. And then Western Australia, our International business as well. WA production was well below average this year, and we put a few stats on the slide there.
So there are a number of elements within the overall business. It's not just the East Coast volume factors that are the only driver, and they're definitely an important driver. And we've seen that on the upside in recent years, but there are many other factors that go into it. And it's why I made the comment earlier, it's always difficult to look at a year and directly on 1 or 2 metrics.
Okay. So essentially, you would say this is a below-average season relative to where you think it would go in a volume sense and margin. In Canada, I think you booked a $7 million loss, [indiscernible] it in the first half. I think it was over 20 last year, and you think that's a positive contributor at some point?
Yes. So a quick answer to that is, yes. And the below average is definitely on the margin side. That's what we're referencing really. It's the impact of margins from some of the local conditions, the local dynamics, both on the West Coast of Australia as well as the East Coast of Australia, but also some of the global factors. And where you've seen really strong production across many of the key international exporting region. So that has an impact on margins, too, less of an impact on the local dynamics, but does influence it as well.
So it's a combination of factors, and these are just a few of the elements that I have drawn out. But Robert, were you going to add?
Yes. I was just going to say that sort of dynamic is fairly common in commodity markets and particularly soft commodity markets, where farmers have had 3 exceptional years, particularly in Australia. So their reluctance to sell as prices have normalized is not unusual. So that's probably exacerbating that margin squeeze we spoke of. And I want to reiterate, we're seeing good demand for grain around the world, but just the margins remain tight. So whilst we talk about normalized conditions, we would expect that -- that margins improve over time as that demand comes through. And particularly, that will be supported if there's strong supply volumes coming in the future, and our business is very much driven off volume.
And the final point that I'd make is we've demonstrated a track record of improvements in the business. We're delivering on what we said we would around taking cost out. We've demonstrated the real upside leverage in terms of the outperformance of the business when the crop conditions allow over the last 3 years. And we're confident that, that's lifting the average and ongoing performance of the business throughout the cycle.
The next question comes from John Campbell from Jefferies.
Yes. Just one question from me. And apologies if it's already been asked, I got on the call a little bit late. But just around the balance sheet, which is obviously very strong, and you've got the $50 million buyback, which you plan to activate shortly. But even post that, balance sheet remains very strong. I mean, are you essentially -- the plan is to maintain a well-above-normal, if you like, balance sheet up until the point that you make the decision on the additional oilseed crush investment?
Yes, I'm not sure I'd say it quite that way, but you probably implied the right messaging there, John. Absolutely, the balance sheet is stronger than it needs to be through the cycle. We think we're finding the right balance between providing really strong returns to shareholders and keeping that flexibility in the balance sheet for both programmatic M&A, things like the very good acquisition of the XF Australia business that we've talked to. But more broadly, the opportunity in bioenergy and the sort of level of balance sheet and core cash we're controlling, that gives us tremendous flexibility to fund a pretty significant organic play in that space, especially when you consider there could be funding and debt opportunities alongside that. So we're very comfortable that the balance sheet can fund significant growth opportunity, and that represents real value for shareholders.
Of course, absent those opportunities, there'd be the outsized [indiscernible] returns to shareholders over time. But our view is that there will be opportunities for investment and growth in the near to medium term, and we think the balance sheet sizing creates that flexibility and opportunity.
I don't think you've detailed any estimates around the potential CapEx on the additional crush capacity but we are obviously talking hundreds of millions, presumably.
Look, today, for the first time, we were hearing numbers in the market that, frankly, were too low. And that was a problem because we think this is a big opportunity with good returns. So today, we've said we would expect for a plant in the order of 750 million to 1 million tonnes. It will be a minimum of 500 million. That depends, of course, on final structure design and location of the plant, but we wanted to drag the external analysis up that this is a significant opportunity and read into that significant returns are associated with an investment of that sort of scale.
I'd also like to reiterate, we've demonstrated and talked quite clearly over several years now about our prudent capital management and our disciplined approach to capital deployment. And given the size of the opportunity we see here, that's why we're not rushing into it. We're moving quickly. We're developing strong partnerships. We're building out our own capability and understanding of the opportunity. We're encouraged by the government funding, which we expect will accelerate the opportunity in the whole sector, and therefore, the opportunities of GrainCorp. But the whole value chain needs to come together. We certainly wouldn't want to be in a position of building a plant at that sort of scale and hoping demand will come. We want to see the demand there to derisk the investment that we hope to be able to make in the future.
The next question is a follow-up from Apoorv Sehgal from UBS.
Just a quick one, just on the Canada JV, would you expect a similar loss in the second half around that $8 million mark? And then into FY '25, would it be realistic to get that operation maybe to break even or potentially even a profit in '25?
I can take that one, Apoorv. In terms of the second half and even the following fiscal year, it's very dependent on the crop conditions in that region. So very similar kind of to what we talk about on the East Coast, Q4, and equally next year's result. There will be a fair element that's based on production out of Canada. We are encouraged by early planting conditions in Canada, similar to East Coast, though it will depend on conditions over the coming 4, 5 months, but it is off to a good start, which is pleasing.
That does conclude the question-and-answer session. I'll hand the conference back to Robert for closing remarks.
Look, thank you, everyone, for joining us this morning. The pack is online, of course, and available to you all. As always, we've done our best to ensure clear and transparent disclosures, including the appendices, which we haven't talked to today. We look forward to meeting many of you in investor meetings over the course of the next number of days and into next week. And again, thank you for your support. We look forward to the opportunity to continue to grow this business off the strength of our current balance sheet. Thanks, everyone.
Thank you. That does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
